A recent report by Delphi Digital shows the consistency of price action and trends within the crypto market. According to the analysis, the ongoing consolidation at $30,000 is similar to the period between 2015 and 2017, with indicators pointing toward an all-time high (ATH) for Bitcoin by the fourth quarter of 2024.
The study draws attention to the cyclical nature of the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin hitting a new ATH, experiencing an approximate 80% drawdown, then a bottom around one year later. This is followed by a two-year recovery to prior highs and, finally, a price rally for another year leading to a new all-time high.
The research reveals a noteworthy correlation between Bitcoin price peaks and changes in the business cycle, as indicated by the ISM Manufacturing Index. During Bitcoin’s price peaks, the ISM often demonstrates signs of topping out, and active addresses, transaction volumes and fees reach their highest point.
Additionally, the report underscores the importance of Bitcoin halvings in these cycles. The last two halvings occurred about 18 months after BTC bottomed and roughly seven months before a new ATH. This historical pattern indicates a projected new ATH for Bitcoin by the fourth quarter of 2024, aligning with the expected timing of the next halving.
The ongoing market environment is similar to the period between 2015 and 2017, as indicated by the S&P 500 trading patterns and gold’s performance. This further adds credence to the thesis that macroeconomic conditions are following a familiar trajectory.
Delphi’s analysis provides convincing evidence that the crypto market operates within cyclical patterns that reflect broader economic changes. The upcoming Bitcoin halving in 2024 further adds to the firm’s expectations of a possible bull market by the fourth quarter of that year. While the analysis is not without its risks and uncertainties, the overall outlook for the cryptocurrency market in the next 12-18 months looks promising.