Predicted Fall in Bitcoin Mining Difficulty as Block Times Lengthen

The final two adjustments to the mining difficulty on the Bitcoin network have pushed the difficulty to an unprecedented level, leading to a lower block timing speed and hashrate. Before the final two changes will increase, the block times had already been quicker than the standard 10 minutes due to the 4.68% difficulty retargeting improvement. They ranged from around 8 minutes 54 seconds up to 9 minutes 31 second. Yet due to this change, records demonstrate that block times have slowed with periods ranging from 10 minutes 44 to 10 minutes 36 seconds.

Slower Than Usual Block Times May Lead to Lower Bitcoin Mining Difficulty

The next mining difficulty adjustment is projected for February 12, 2023. At the time of writing, data indicates that the difficulty could drop as much as 5.6% below the current rate. The estimated mining difficulty is lower due to the slower block times than normal. Before the last two changes will increase, block times had already been faster than usual, leading to the difficulty increasing. Figures display that block times have slowed due to the final difficulty change. Times started from 10 minutes 44 seconds up to 10 minutes 3 seconds.

Over the last 2016 blocks, hashrate was at a low level, with an average of 279 exahash per second (EH/s). At 11:30AM Eastern Time February 4, 2023, the numbers show a hash rate of 258 EH/s. On February 1, 2023, the full hashrate dropped to 217 EH/s, after it had reached a peak of 279EH/s a day earlier. The hashrate was then increased to 309 EH/s on February 2, before declining 16.50%, reaching its current level at 258 EH/s.

As of Saturday, the biggest Bitcoin mining pool Foundry USA had 90.61 exhash/second (EH/s), or 33.4%. Foundry was followed by Antpool (18.14%), F2pool (14.08%), Binance Pool (13.13%), ViaBTC (9.07%). Thirteen recognized Bitcoin mining pools contribute hashrate to the network, while unknown miners (known as stealth miners) manage 1.67% or 4.53 EH/s. If the block time slowdown results in a reduce difficulty within eight days, miners will receive a reprieve of two weeks for the highest difficulty.

What influence will the lower mining difficulty have on the overall network as well as the hashrate for the cryptocurrency? Let us know your thoughts on this matter in the comments section below.